Instrument
Reality Check
Every call is frozen to a hash-chained public ledger before it resolves, then graded in the open. The current sample is early; reliability, Brier score, and comparison with the market become decision-useful only as enough calls resolve.
Reality check loading public ledger
The standard · calibration after enough resolutions
When we say 80%, it must happen eight times in ten.
The scoreboard · forward ledger, opened Jun 29
Resolved
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Loading the current public scorecard.
Ledger entries...
Skill-scored · correct · incorrect...
Analogue-direction agreement...
Historical analogue checks and forward forecast results are kept separate.
$ verify-chain → loading
Frozen before the fact.
Every call appends to a cryptographic chain anyone can re-verify. Rewriting the past is detectable.
The sample comes first.
MacroGuru does not treat a handful of resolved calls as proof of calibration or forecasting edge. The scorecard publishes the sample, uncertainty, and benchmark comparison so those claims can be earned over time.
The misses stay up.
A record you can only trust on a good week isn’t a record. The wrong calls sit beside the right ones.
This runs live on the desk. The receipts are public — read the record before you take a seat. A seat runs this instrument on your own book, with alerts the moment the gap opens.