Instrument
What-If Search
Type any future — a Taiwan blockade, a 100bp cut, a sector unwind — and the engine returns the closest dated precedents with sources, an evidence-backed probability, and, where a market exists, the market’s price to compare. The interval and sample travel with the number.
? what if China blockades Taiwan
Derived probability
8%
3%19%
Base rate from analogous strait crises, shrunk to measured history. Not a forecast anyone guessed — what the record implies.
Closest dated precedents
1996 · Third Taiwan Strait Crisis CRS ↗
TAIEX −15%, recovered ~4mo
2022 · Pelosi visit · PLA drills Reuters ↗
TWD −1.1%, TSMC ADR −6% intraday
1962 · Cuban Missile “quarantine” JFK Library ↗
S&P −6.7%, then +15% in 6 weeks
Searched the full library · 1,021 events · 27 analogues weighted · 0 made-up numbers
Precedents first, dated and sourced.
The answer leads with what actually happened the last times this occurred — each one measured, each one openable.
A derived number, benchmarked.
The same engine behind every scenario page, set beside the market’s price so the gap is the first thing you see.
Every question sharpens the map.
Real queries steer coverage toward where the mispricing actually is. What a desk asks is where we look next.
This runs live on the desk. The receipts are public — read the record before you take a seat. A seat runs this instrument on your own book, with alerts the moment the gap opens.