What if A sovereign wealth fund discloses a strategic BTC stake?
A major SWF reveals a multibillion-dollar BTC position as a long-horizon inflation hedge, validating the asset for the most conservative allocators.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A major SWF reveals a multibillion-dollar BTC position as a long-horizon inflation hedge, validating the asset for the most conservative allocators. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Bitcoin ▲ · Crypto confidence ▲ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +6.9% hist -0.07–+9.61% · other way +3.15% (n=10) |
| 2 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +4.7% hist +0.99–+2.98% · other way -16.86% (n=6) |
| 3 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +3.9% hist +0.21–+2.26% · other way -17.23% (n=6) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +3.5% hist -0.54–+1.66% · other way -3.99% (n=5) |
| 5 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +2.7% hist -2.95–+9.51% · other way +2.15% (n=5) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +1.8% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.7% hist +0.21–+0.52% · other way -2.45% (n=10) |
| 8 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.25–-0.14% · other way -0.07% (n=12) |
| 9 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.04–+0.38% · other way +0.13% (n=10) |
| 10 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +3bp hist -1.38–+6.9% · other way -13.8% (n=12) |
| 11 | GBP/USD GBPUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist +0.09–+0.2% · other way +0.15% (n=10) |
| 12 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -1.55–+7.23% · other way -14.4% (n=12) |
| 13 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.02–+2.0% · other way +1.36% (n=10) |
| 14 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.2% hist +0.05–+0.2% · other way -0.12% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -5.3% | 67% | 38 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.8% | 67% | 38 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 62% | 38 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.1% | 62% | 38 | 0.17 | · |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.9% | 62% | 38 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 62% | 38 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -3.1% | 59% | 38 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.1% | 59% | 38 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +6bp · 5d +0bp | 57% | 39 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -1.2% | 56% | 38 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| AUD AUD | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 56% | 38 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -3.3% | 54% | 38 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +5bp · 5d +1bp | 54% | 38 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.0% · 5d -2.5% ↺ fades | 54% | 38 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |