Archived market calls
archived week · Aug 4 – 10, 2026
This forecast window has closed. We keep the calls visible for audit and scoring; current 24h and 7d asset outcomes live in Asset Outlooks.
Our track record0.107 Brier · lower better80% called right · 15 resolvedReality Check →
This week’s regimeA deliberately quiet week from the engine's point of view. After the weak July jobs report, most near-term asset calls sit near 50/50 — and MacroGuru says so rather than manufacturing conviction. These three are the only places the calibrated near-term model, scored over 500+ resolved forecasts (Brier ~0.25), carries a real directional edge. Every number below is the model's, not an analyst's.as of 2026-08-03
MacroGuru near-term modelthrough Mon Aug 10✓ called it right
The Turkish lira weakens again — USD/TRY finishes the week higher than it started. The engine's single strongest read this week: 79%.
Moves↑ TRY
Research lens A slow structural bleed, not a crisis leg — and the only call above 70% this week.
How it resolves · our edge · sources
Resolves 2026-08-10 — TRUE if USD/TRY's daily close on 2026-08-10 is higher than its 2026-08-03 daily close (the lira weakens over the week); FALSE if it closes flat or lower. Settled on MacroGuru's daily price cache — the same series both dates.
⊕ Our edge — This is the model's number, not an analyst's guess — and USD/TRY is where its calibration is strongest.
MacroGuru near-term modelthrough Mon Aug 10✗ missed
MicroStrategy finishes the week lower — the engine's biggest expected drop in the crypto-proxy complex. 61%.
Moves↓ MicroStrategy
Research lens The levered expression of a soft-August bitcoin — the engine's clearest single name in the crypto-proxy fade.
How it resolves · our edge · sources
Resolves 2026-08-10 — TRUE if MicroStrategy (MSTR) closes lower on 2026-08-10 than its 2026-08-03 daily close; FALSE if it closes flat or higher. Settled on MacroGuru's daily price cache — the same series both dates.
⊕ Our edge — A modest 61% — an honest coin-flip-plus, not a screaming short. The frozen receipt is the point, not the bravado.
MacroGuru near-term modelthrough Mon Aug 10✗ missed
Coinbase finishes lower too — the second leg of the engine's crypto-proxy fade. 61%.
Moves↓ Coinbase
Research lens Reads with the MicroStrategy call — both ride bitcoin's weak-August seasonality.
How it resolves · our edge · sources
Resolves 2026-08-10 — TRUE if Coinbase (COIN) closes lower on 2026-08-10 than its 2026-08-03 daily close; FALSE if it closes flat or higher. Settled on MacroGuru's daily price cache — the same series both dates.
⊕ Our edge — Correlated with the MicroStrategy call by design; we disclose it rather than double-counting the edge.
How we score this. Every call is logged, graded against what actually
happens, and published — wins and losses. Odds built from history; market odds from Polymarket & Kalshi.
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