What if Aging-Japan consumption drag deepens without labor reform?
An aging, shrinking population deepens Japan's domestic-demand drag absent immigration or participation reform; weaker consumption and tax base pressure growth and keep the long-run fiscal path strained.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. An aging, shrinking population deepens Japan's domestic-demand drag absent immigration or participation reform; weaker consumption and tax base pressure growth and keep the long-run fiscal path strained. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Consumer spending ▼ · Growth surprise ▼ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.