What if AI crypto tokens 10x then collapse 70%?
An AI-token 10x-then-70% round-trip is pure crypto-sentiment reflexivity: the unwind drains liquidity from ETH/SOL/BTC, but it says nothing about real AI capex — the spillover to NVDA/semis is spurious noise, not signal. Rhymes with the 2017-18 ICO boom-bust and the 2024 AI-agent token mania. Trade the crypto leg short; ignore the implied semi bid. Forward angle: AI-token narratives now decouple faster from actual hardware demand than the ICO era did.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. AI-themed crypto tokens collectively 10x in a quarter on agent-economy hype before a 70% sector-wide collapse. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Crypto confidence ▼ · Crypto liquidity ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.