What if Japan's swelling stock of vacant homes slowly erodes regional bank mortgage collateral?
Japan's swelling stock of vacant homes (akiya) and depopulating regions structurally erode residential collateral values and mortgage recoverability, a slow-burn impairment to regional-bank housing-loan books.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Japan's swelling stock of vacant homes (akiya) and depopulating regions structurally erode residential collateral values and mortgage recoverability, a slow-burn impairment to regional-bank housing-loan books. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Labor shortage ▲ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -5.94–+1.28% · other way +15.45% (n=12) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -10.44–+6.99% · other way -13.98% (n=11) |
| 3 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.59–-0.05% · other way -0.38% (n=12) |
| 4 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.63–-0.04% · other way +0.21% (n=12) |
| 5 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.62–+0.01% · other way -0.76% (n=12) |
| 6 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.36–+3.3% · other way -10.38% (n=12) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -3.64–+2.27% · other way +1.56% (n=11) |
| 9 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.87–+0.61% · other way +1.61% (n=12) |
| 10 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -5.43–+3.86% · other way -4.02% (n=11) |
| 11 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.45–+0.55% · other way +0.37% (n=12) |
| 12 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.9–+0.6% · other way +7.8% (n=11) |
| 13 | JPMorgan JPM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.17–-0.01% · other way -0.51% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 38 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -10.6% · 5d -10.6% | 71% | 7 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -5.0% · 5d -3.6% | 67% | 27 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -5.5% · 5d -4.7% | 62% | 8 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -4.5% | 60% | 10 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -8bp · 5d -4bp | 58% | 38 | 0.16 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 58% | 24 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +0.8% · 5d +5.6% | 57% | 7 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.4% | 56% | 27 | 0.10 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.2% | 55% | 38 | 0.08 | · |
| SPX SPX | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -0.6% | 53% | 38 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -1.2% | 52% | 27 | 0.03 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 52% | 27 | 0.03 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -1.5% | 43% | 30 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +3.0% · 5d +6.8% | 48% | 29 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |