What if a consensus bug halts Aptos or Sui for a full day?
A Move-VM consensus bug halting a top alt-L1 for a full day freezes its DeFi and shakes confidence in newer chains, so the L1's token sells off on the outage while ETH is dragged modestly on beta. Rhymes with Solana's repeated full-chain halts (2021-22), each of which knocked SOL on the day before it recovered. Channel is confidence in unproven consensus; the move should stay contained to the affected chain and high-beta alts — a brief halt is recoverable, so fade the broad-market read.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A Move-VM consensus bug halts a top alt-L1 for a full day, freezing its DeFi ecosystem and shaking confidence in new chains. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Crypto confidence ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.