What if a major US bank launches its own stablecoin?
A major US bank launching a deposit-token stablecoin is a slow liquidity-drain on crypto-native issuers (USDT/USDC), a mild structural negative for ETH/SOL settlement value rather than a crash. Rhymes with JPM Coin's institutional rollout siphoning settlement from public rails. Forward angle: GENIUS-Act-style charters now let banks compete directly, so the threat to crypto-native issuers is regulatory-durable, not a one-off — a multi-quarter de-rate, not a shock.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A major US bank launches a deposit-token stablecoin, draining liquidity from crypto-native issuers and shifting on-chain settlement. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Crypto confidence ▼ · Crypto liquidity ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.