What if Bitcoin doubles to $130,000 before crashing?
A retail-mania BTC double then a 40% three-week reversal is the classic leverage-unwind setup — the asymmetric trade is short MSTR and ETH/SOL beta into the blowoff, since levered proxies overshoot both ways. Rhymes with the late-2021 $69k top into the 2022 collapse and the Oct-2025 record-$126k peak before the $19bn liquidation cascade. Forward angle: spot-ETF and treasury-vehicle leverage (MSTR) makes the down-leg more reflexive than prior cycles — the up-cascade is fine, but the violent reversal is where the real PnL sits.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. From the mid-$60k range, Bitcoin doubles to $130,000 in a retail-mania melt-up, then reverses 40% over three weeks. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Bitcoin ▲ · Crypto confidence ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.