What if Bitcoin-treasury equity premium collapses, forcing deleveraging?
A BTC drawdown erases the NAV premium on treasury vehicles, blocking new equity raises and forcing some to sell coins, amplifying spot weakness.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A BTC drawdown erases the NAV premium on treasury vehicles, blocking new equity raises and forcing some to sell coins, amplifying spot weakness. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Bitcoin ▼ · Crypto confidence ▼ · Crypto liquidity ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.