What if Modi's BJP again falls short of a majority in 2029?
BJP again missing a single-party majority deepens NDA coalition dependence — Sensex and rupee swoon on reform-paralysis fear; short Nifty and INR, with rate-sensitive PSU and capex names worst hit. The direct rhyme is June-4-2024, when the surprise BJP shortfall sank the Nifty ~6% intraday before a coalition-continuity rebound. Forward angle: a second shortfall hardens the structural reform-slowdown narrative rather than being a one-day liquidity flush.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. In the 2029 Lok Sabha vote BJP again falls short alone, deepening NDA coalition dependence; Sensex and rupee swoon on reform-paralysis fears. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Growth surprise ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.