What if BTC monetary-network effect entrenches global reserve role?
Sustained adoption across institutions, sovereigns, and individuals compounds BTC's network value, cementing a small but durable global reserve role.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Sustained adoption across institutions, sovereigns, and individuals compounds BTC's network value, cementing a small but durable global reserve role. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Bitcoin ▲ · Crypto confidence ▲ · Crypto liquidity ▲ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.