What if BTC monetary-network effect entrenches global reserve role?
Sustained adoption across institutions, sovereigns, and individuals compounds BTC's network value, cementing a small but durable global reserve role.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Sustained adoption across institutions, sovereigns, and individuals compounds BTC's network value, cementing a small but durable global reserve role. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Bitcoin ▲ · Crypto confidence ▲ · Crypto liquidity ▲ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +6.8% hist -5.38–+2.77% · other way +5.87% (n=12) |
| 2 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +4.7% hist +1.2–+2.79% · other way -4.5% (n=12) |
| 3 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +3.8% hist -5.01–+1.86% · other way -7.56% (n=12) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +3.5% hist -0.22–+1.66% · other way -3.21% (n=12) |
| 5 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +2.7% hist -1.88–+6.53% · other way +5.85% (n=12) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +1.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.4–+0.77% · other way -1.45% (n=12) |
| 8 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.01–+0.15% · other way +0.28% (n=12) |
| 9 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.07–+0.97% · other way +0.07% (n=12) |
| 10 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +3bp hist -0.68–+5.38% · other way -5.9% (n=12) |
| 11 | GBP/USD GBPUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.17–+0.95% · other way +0.24% (n=12) |
| 12 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist +0.43–+2.44% · other way -6.4% (n=12) |
| 13 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.38–+0.4% · other way -0.63% (n=12) |
| 14 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.05–+0.43% · other way +0.03% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 36 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -6.5% · 5d -1.1% | 72% | 25 | 0.39 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -5.3% · 5d -2.9% | 73% | 22 | 0.37 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.1% | 71% | 24 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | LONG | +0.9% · 5d +0.3% | 71% | 24 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +10.3% · 5d +0.7% | 68% | 25 | 0.32 | · |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -3.9% | 68% | 19 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.2% | 62% | 34 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.3% | 62% | 24 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.8% | 59% | 27 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -1.4% | 55% | 20 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +4bp · 5d +3bp | 55% | 31 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.4% | 54% | 24 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +4.7% · 5d +2.9% | 47% | 15 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -1.1% | 50% | 24 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |