What if a MiCA-authorized euro stablecoin issuer loses its license?
A regulator pulling a MiCA EMT license over reserve breaches forces par redemptions across European venues — a euro-stablecoin plumbing shock that drains EUR on/off-ramps and pressures ETH (-4.6%) on liquidity, not a tariff event. The trade_tension root spuriously imports semis/Nasdaq/Alibaba moves unrelated to a European stablecoin license. Transmission is intra-crypto European liquidity; trim the tariff channel. Forward angle: MiCA makes reserve-quality the binding constraint, a regulatory dependency absent in the offshore-stablecoin era.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A national regulator revokes a MiCA-authorized euro stablecoin issuer's EMT license over reserve breaches, triggering forced par redemptions across European venues. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Crypto confidence ▼ · Crypto liquidity ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.