What if a domestic credit-spread blowout freezes Japanese corporate bond and commercial paper issuance?
A domestic credit-spread blowout in a global financial-stress tail freezes Japanese corporate bond and CP issuance, forcing reliance on bank credit lines just as banks retrench, a sudden-stop the FSA monitors for SME refinancing.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A domestic credit-spread blowout in a global financial-stress tail freezes Japanese corporate bond and CP issuance, forcing reliance on bank credit lines just as banks retrench, a sudden-stop the FSA monitors for SME refinancing. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Financial conditions ▲ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.