What if a flash crash sets off $20 billion in cross-exchange liquidations?
A full cross-exchange ADL spiral is the tail version of 631 — auto-deleveraging plus vanished books means MSTR ~-8% and ETH ~-6% as liquidations beget liquidations. This is precisely the Oct-2025 ~$19bn cascade mechanism, where stop-cascades and ADL overshot fundamentals before a violent mean-reversion. The tell is that broad risk barely flinches (+0.1%): crypto is still self-contained, so the trade is intra-crypto dispersion (short levered proxies vs spot), not a macro hedge.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A flash crash triggers $20 billion in cascading liquidations across exchanges as thin order books and auto-deleveraging compound the move. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Bitcoin ▼ · Crypto confidence ▼ · Crypto liquidity ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.