What if clustered crypto failures strain the payment banks and custodians bridging to TradFi?
A clustered failure of crypto exchanges and lenders strains the payment banks and custodians that bridge crypto to TradFi, the interconnection channel the BIS BCBS crypto standard d579 is designed to ring-fence.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A clustered failure of crypto exchanges and lenders strains the payment banks and custodians that bridge crypto to TradFi, the interconnection channel the BIS BCBS crypto standard d579 is designed to ring-fence. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Crypto confidence ▼ · Crypto liquidity ▼ · Financial conditions ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.