What if a bitcoin crash widens spreads on crypto miner and exchange high-yield bonds?
A bitcoin crash impairs crypto miners' and exchanges' high-yield bonds, widening spreads in the small but growing pocket of crypto-linked corporate credit.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A bitcoin crash impairs crypto miners' and exchanges' high-yield bonds, widening spreads in the small but growing pocket of crypto-linked corporate credit. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Bitcoin ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Crypto confidence ▼ · Recession signal ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -5.2% hist -4.97–-0.75% · other way -7.85% (n=12) |
| 2 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -3.7% hist -16.66–+6.9% · other way -6.7% (n=11) |
| 3 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -3.0% hist -15.4–+4.96% · other way -5.65% (n=11) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -2.6% hist -13.62–+5.18% · other way -18.56% (n=11) |
| 5 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.1% hist -2.93–-0.39% · other way +2.5% (n=11) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.2% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.5–-0.13% · other way +0.36% (n=12) |
| 8 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.24–+0.16% · other way -0.94% (n=12) |
| 9 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.3% hist -1.07–+2.54% · other way -2.32% (n=12) |
| 10 | JPMorgan JPM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.49–+0.15% · other way -0.21% (n=12) |
| 11 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.3–-0.04% · other way -0.89% (n=12) |
| 12 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.32–+0.0% · other way +0.57% (n=12) |
| 13 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.37–+0.71% · other way +1.07% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 34 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -11.9% · 5d -15.8% | 78% | 9 | 0.51 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -13.2% · 5d -8.3% | 75% | 12 | 0.46 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -1.7% | 73% | 33 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -14.4% · 5d -11.7% | 70% | 10 | 0.36 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -17bp · 5d -8bp | 64% | 34 | 0.26 | · |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -1.1% | 63% | 30 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -4.9% | 62% | 30 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 57% | 30 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 56% | 27 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.5% | 54% | 30 | 0.08 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.1% | 54% | 34 | 0.07 | · |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -1.2% | 44% | 9 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.3% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 48% | 31 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.3% | 40% | 34 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |