What if dealer hedging sparks a gamma squeeze around Bitcoin options expiry?
Negative dealer gamma into a big expiry means hedging flows chase price, so a 20% range is amplified rather than caused by fundamentals — vol surface dislocates and MSTR/Coinbase wobble ~1-1.5%. Comparable to equity-style gamma unpins; direction is path-dependent and decays once the expiry clears and dealers reset. Trade the vol, not the spot: long gamma/straddles into the pin, knowing the move reverses after open interest rolls off.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Dealer gamma positioning around a major Bitcoin options expiry amplifies a 20% move, dislocating implied volatility surfaces. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Bitcoin ▼ · Crypto liquidity ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.