What if Bitcoin closes decisively below its 200-week average?
A sustained weekly close ~15% under the 200-week MA confirms a deep bear — short MSTR/COIN as the levered casualties; this has historically only happened in true capitulation, so it argues for max-pain positioning. Rhymes precisely with the 2022 FTX/3AC/Celsius cascade that broke the 200wMA and sent SOL toward $8. Forward angle: ETF holders and corporate treasuries (MSTR) are this cycle's forced sellers below cost — the unwind reflexivity differs from the 2022 native-leverage flush, but the signal's meaning (regime change, not a dip) is the same.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Bitcoin posts a sustained, decisive weekly close roughly 15% under its 200-week moving average, confirming a deep cyclical breakdown. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Bitcoin ▼ · Crypto confidence ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -11.7% hist -7.72–-3.52% · other way -5.96% (n=12) |
| 2 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -9.0% hist -16.08–+0.31% · other way -3.85% (n=12) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -6.6% hist -12.13–-0.18% · other way -15.5% (n=12) |
| 4 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -6.5% hist -11.03–+0.4% · other way -3.27% (n=12) |
| 5 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -4.6% hist -3.07–-0.37% · other way +6.46% (n=12) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -3.1% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.97–-0.05% · other way -0.02% (n=12) |
| 8 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.51–+1.87% · other way +2.0% (n=12) |
| 9 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.47–+0.17% · other way +0.57% (n=12) |
| 10 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.36–+1.27% · other way +0.34% (n=12) |
| 11 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.56–+1.26% · other way +1.35% (n=12) |
| 12 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.15–+1.92% · other way -0.46% (n=12) |
| 13 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.19–-0.09% · other way +6.59% (n=12) |
| 14 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.44–+0.5% · other way +1.46% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade's SHORT TSM/AMD/ASML: the small positive history is AI-capex-driven semis decoupling during the 2022 crypto-credit blowups — that dominant driver swamps the BTC-breakdown channel.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MU MU | SHORT | -4.4% · 5d -3.9% | 80% | 40 | 0.45 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -8.1% · 5d -9.9% | 77% | 34 | 0.43 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 71% | 40 | 0.38 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -10.7% · 5d -8.7% | 71% | 35 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -7.2% · 5d -5.8% | 66% | 35 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -4.0% · 5d -3.9% | 63% | 40 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.3% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 61% | 39 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.1% | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -10bp · 5d -6bp | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | · |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +1.5% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 55% | 39 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 54% | 34 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -1.6% | 53% | 40 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +1.8% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 53% | 39 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.6% | 53% | 40 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |
Why this probability
Sustained close 15% under 200wMA is deep-bear signal; unlikely from current elevated cyclical level. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.