What if Bitcoin closes decisively below its 200-week average?
A sustained weekly close ~15% under the 200-week MA confirms a deep bear — short MSTR/COIN as the levered casualties; this has historically only happened in true capitulation, so it argues for max-pain positioning. Rhymes precisely with the 2022 FTX/3AC/Celsius cascade that broke the 200wMA and sent SOL toward $8. Forward angle: ETF holders and corporate treasuries (MSTR) are this cycle's forced sellers below cost — the unwind reflexivity differs from the 2022 native-leverage flush, but the signal's meaning (regime change, not a dip) is the same.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Bitcoin posts a sustained, decisive weekly close roughly 15% under its 200-week moving average, confirming a deep cyclical breakdown. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Bitcoin ▼ · Crypto confidence ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.