What if Deep crypto winter: BTC drops more than 75% from the cycle high?
A liquidity drain plus a high-profile blow-up collapses confidence, and BTC retraces over three-quarters of its peak as forced sellers and miners capitulate together.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A liquidity drain plus a high-profile blow-up collapses confidence, and BTC retraces over three-quarters of its peak as forced sellers and miners capitulate together. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Bitcoin ▼ · Crypto confidence ▼ · Crypto liquidity ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.