What if Dollar-strength regime is a persistent headwind for BTC?
A rising DXY tightens global dollar liquidity and pressures risk assets, leaving BTC range-bound to lower despite favorable native catalysts.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A rising DXY tightens global dollar liquidity and pressures risk assets, leaving BTC range-bound to lower despite favorable native catalysts. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Bitcoin ▼ · Crypto confidence ▼ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -5.8% hist -3.77–-1.78% · other way -5.96% (n=12) |
| 2 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -3.2% hist -10.39–+1.13% · other way -3.27% (n=12) |
| 3 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -3.0% hist -14.73–+1.65% · other way -3.85% (n=12) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -2.7% hist -11.12–+0.69% · other way -15.5% (n=12) |
| 5 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.2% hist -1.49–-0.49% · other way +6.46% (n=12) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.34–-0.33% · other way +0.89% (n=12) |
| 8 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.1–+0.51% · other way +0.14% (n=12) |
| 9 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.35–+0.2% · other way +0.04% (n=12) |
| 10 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -6bp hist -13.96–+2.15% · other way +0.2% (n=12) |
| 11 | GBP/USD GBPUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.38–+0.23% · other way -0.14% (n=12) |
| 12 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -5bp hist -14.2–+2.86% · other way -1.8% (n=12) |
| 13 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.25–+0.18% · other way -0.11% (n=12) |
| 14 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.33–-0.01% · other way -0.47% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -8.3% · 5d -10.0% | 76% | 32 | 0.42 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -11.3% · 5d -8.9% | 72% | 33 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -7.8% · 5d -6.0% | 69% | 33 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.1% | 66% | 37 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -10bp · 5d -6bp | 60% | 40 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.1% | 60% | 37 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 57% | 37 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.1% | 58% | 40 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -11bp · 5d -6bp | 58% | 40 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.4% | 57% | 37 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d +1.2% ↺ fades | 57% | 37 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.5% | 55% | 37 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 53% | 37 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.3% | 53% | 37 | 0.05 | · |