What if the ETH/BTC ratio breaks below 0.02?
ETH/BTC breaking 0.02 is a relative-value trade, not a directional one: long BTC / short ETH as ETH's higher beta and weaker fee narrative drag the cross lower, pulling SOL and other ETH-correlated alts down harder than BTC. Rhymes with the 2018-19 and 2022 regimes when ETH/BTC bled toward 0.05 amid alt capitulation. Forward angle: ETF flows now anchor BTC dominance structurally, so the floor may be lower than past cycles.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. The ETH/BTC ratio slides further below 0.02 from current sub-0.027 levels, deepening relative-value capitulation across Ethereum-correlated altcoins. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Crypto confidence ▼ · Crypto liquidity ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.