What if a concentrated swap default dents a G-SIB's CET1 by a quarter of trading revenue?
A concentrated swap default erases a quarter of a GSIB's trading revenue and triggers a CET1 drawdown that the Fed's CCAR counterparty component is calibrated to capture.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A concentrated swap default erases a quarter of a GSIB's trading revenue and triggers a CET1 drawdown that the Fed's CCAR counterparty component is calibrated to capture. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Financial conditions ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Risk-parity deleveraging ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.