What if Four-year cycle weakens as ETF flows dominate the halving?
With institutional flows now setting price, the historical halving-anchored four-year rhythm dampens, smoothing the boom-bust amplitude over time.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. With institutional flows now setting price, the historical halving-anchored four-year rhythm dampens, smoothing the boom-bust amplitude over time. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Bitcoin ▲ · Volatility (VIX) ▼ · Crypto confidence ▲ · Crypto liquidity ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.