What if IG Metall launches an open-ended strike across German industry?
An open-ended IG Metall strike is a DAX-industrials and German-auto-supply trade: VW, BMW, Mercedes and the Mittelstand seize up, denting German GDP and the wider European auto chain. Rhymes with past IG Metall actions and the 2018 35-hour disputes (localized output hits, contained market impact). Germany anchors EU manufacturing; the connected-economy angle is CEE/auto-parts suppliers (Czech, Polish, Hungarian plants) idling alongside — not a global crypto event.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. IG Metall launches open-ended strike across auto and engineering, supply chains seize, DAX industrials slump. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Growth surprise ▼ · Industrial demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -4.45–+0.8% · other way -3.1% (n=10) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.51–+0.38% · other way +28.15% (n=11) |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.27–-0.06% · other way -0.44% (n=11) |
| 4 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -6.06–+1.4% · other way +4.57% (n=10) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.38–+0.38% · other way +6.08% (n=10) |
| 7 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.28–+3.5% · other way +1.77% (n=11) |
| 8 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.34–+0.34% · other way +1.24% (n=11) |
| 9 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.3–+0.4% · other way -0.38% (n=11) |
| 10 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.21–+0.34% · other way +0.08% (n=12) |
| 11 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.95–+0.64% · other way +23.11% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade short on NDX/XLK: the up-tilt rests on a thin stale mix (2010 Greece, 2011/2014 gold) not comparable to a German industrial seizure; base rate is unreliable.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.5% · 5d +0.3% | 70% | 33 | 0.36 | · |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -6.5% | 70% | 25 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -5.2% · 5d -6.0% | 67% | 25 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 61% | 33 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 60% | 40 | 0.19 | · |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.1% | 59% | 40 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -1.5% | 58% | 23 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -3bp · 5d +1bp ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.13 | · |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +3.2% · 5d +0.3% | 57% | 34 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 55% | 33 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -4.0% ↺ fades | 52% | 33 | 0.04 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 40% | 35 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -2.5% ↺ fades | 46% | 28 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 43% | 33 | 0.00 | · |
Why this probability
IG Metall strikes common but open-ended supply-seizing strike rarer; usually settles fast. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.