What if IG Metall launches an open-ended strike across German industry?
An open-ended IG Metall strike is a DAX-industrials and German-auto-supply trade: VW, BMW, Mercedes and the Mittelstand seize up, denting German GDP and the wider European auto chain. Rhymes with past IG Metall actions and the 2018 35-hour disputes (localized output hits, contained market impact). Germany anchors EU manufacturing; the connected-economy angle is CEE/auto-parts suppliers (Czech, Polish, Hungarian plants) idling alongside — not a global crypto event.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. IG Metall launches open-ended strike across auto and engineering, supply chains seize, DAX industrials slump. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Growth surprise ▼ · Industrial demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.