What if the G7 imposes a coordinated billionaire exit tax?
A coordinated G7 exit tax is a slow capital-rotation story, not a crash: marginal flight to Gulf/Singapore pressures high-end real estate and select equity ownership, but enforcement lags and arbitrage blunt the hit. No real analogue beyond France's 2012 75% supertax (Depardieu-style departures, muted market effect) and prior wealth-tax repeals. Skeptical read: the GFC-bank analogues attached here are wrong; this is a flow drip, not a systemic event.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Coordinated G7 exit tax on ultra-wealthy passes, triggering capital flight to Gulf and Singapore. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.