What if Bitcoin's hashrate plunges 35% after a price crash?
A 35% hashrate drop from post-crash miner capitulation lengthens block times and forces miner-held BTC sales, adding supply pressure that MSTR (-4.8%) amplifies. Rhymes with the mid-2021 China-ban hashrate collapse and the Nov-2022 post-FTX miner capitulation. Forward angle: difficulty adjustment self-heals within ~2 weeks, so the spot overhang is the transient miner-sale flow, not the hashrate level — fade the difficulty-whipsaw panic.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Bitcoin hashrate drops 35% as unprofitable miners capitulate post-crash, lengthening block times and pressuring miner-held BTC sales. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Bitcoin ▼ · Crypto confidence ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.