What if Japan's FSA fully bans Binance and freezes yen rails?
Japan's FSA revoking Binance's registration and freezing yen rails strands Japanese users and drains regional liquidity — an Asia-venue-access shock that pressures ETH (-4.6%) and BTC on lost order-flow, with no tariff dimension. The trade_tension root wrongly imports semis/Nasdaq/Alibaba effects unrelated to a Japanese exchange ban. Rhymes with the 2018 Coincheck/FSA crackdown that tightened Japanese rails. Transmission is regional crypto liquidity; the tech-supply-chain leg should be dropped.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Japan's FSA revokes Binance's registration and freezes yen rails, stranding millions of Japanese users and draining regional liquidity. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Crypto confidence ▼ · Crypto liquidity ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.