What if Leverage-ratio extreme flags an imminent crypto volatility spike?
Aggregate open-interest-to-market-cap hits a danger zone, signaling that a small price move could trigger an outsized liquidation-driven volatility event.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Aggregate open-interest-to-market-cap hits a danger zone, signaling that a small price move could trigger an outsized liquidation-driven volatility event. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Bitcoin ▼ · Volatility (VIX) ▲ · Crypto confidence ▼ · Crypto liquidity ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.