What if Macro recession drags crypto into a correlated risk-off bear?
A US recession crushes risk appetite and liquidity, and BTC, behaving as high-beta, falls alongside equities into a cyclical bear market.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A US recession crushes risk appetite and liquidity, and BTC, behaving as high-beta, falls alongside equities into a cyclical bear market. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Bitcoin ▼ · Crypto confidence ▼ · Crypto liquidity ▼ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -6.1% hist -4.04–-1.77% · other way -5.96% (n=12) |
| 2 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -4.7% hist -16.38–+1.04% · other way -3.85% (n=12) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -4.0% hist -12.44–+0.56% · other way -15.5% (n=12) |
| 4 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -3.4% hist -10.71–+1.05% · other way -3.27% (n=12) |
| 5 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.4% hist -1.72–-0.76% · other way +6.46% (n=12) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -2.0% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.06–-0.07% · other way -0.02% (n=12) |
| 8 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.24–+1.39% · other way +2.0% (n=12) |
| 9 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.36–+1.11% · other way +0.34% (n=12) |
| 10 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.46–+0.07% · other way +0.57% (n=12) |
| 11 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.35–-0.05% · other way -0.69% (n=12) |
| 12 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.36–+0.12% · other way +0.08% (n=12) |
| 13 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.63–+1.29% · other way +1.35% (n=12) |
| 14 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.67–+0.93% · other way -0.46% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -9.0% · 5d -10.0% | 76% | 32 | 0.42 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -12.1% · 5d -9.2% | 74% | 33 | 0.41 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -4.1% · 5d -3.8% | 76% | 40 | 0.40 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 71% | 40 | 0.38 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -8.0% · 5d -6.1% | 70% | 34 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -12bp · 5d -7bp | 61% | 40 | 0.18 | · |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 59% | 39 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.0% | 59% | 40 | 0.15 | · |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +2.2% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 57% | 39 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -1.7% | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.3% | 55% | 39 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +1.0% · 5d +0.7% | 53% | 39 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.5% | 53% | 40 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -1.9% | 51% | 32 | 0.03 | ✓ matches cascade |