What if a multibillion-dollar token unlock crashes the asset 60%?
A multi-billion VC unlock is mechanical supply: early holders dump an illiquid float and the token craters ~60%, bleeding into ETH/SOL via correlation and sentiment, not fundamentals. Rhymes with past large cliff-unlocks where price front-ran the vesting date and bounced after the overhang cleared. The asymmetry is timed and known — fade strength into the unlock, then look for exhaustion once the supply is absorbed; broad crypto contagion (~3-5%) is shallow and temporary.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A multi-billion-dollar venture token unlock floods the market, crashing the asset 60% as early investors exit illiquid positions. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Crypto confidence ▼ · Crypto liquidity ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.