What if a margin call forces MicroStrategy to sell Bitcoin?
A margin call forcing the largest corporate BTC holder into open-market selling is the most reflexive single-name shock: MSTR (-7.1%) craters as the NAV premium inverts and forced spot sales drag BTC/ETH. Rhymes with the 2022 Tesla BTC sale and convertible-distress forced selling. Forward angle: MSTR's debt is long-dated and lightly covenanted, so a true forced sale requires a deep, sustained drawdown — the market over-prices this trigger at shallow dips.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A margin call on MicroStrategy-style convertible debt forces the largest corporate Bitcoin holder into open-market selling. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Bitcoin ▼ · Crypto confidence ▼ · Crypto liquidity ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.