What if a power-cost surge crushes mining margins and forces capitulation bitcoin sales?
A surge in electricity prices crushes mining margins below breakeven, forcing capitulation selling of bitcoin and defaults on power-purchase and equipment-finance contracts.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A surge in electricity prices crushes mining margins below breakeven, forcing capitulation selling of bitcoin and defaults on power-purchase and equipment-finance contracts. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Bitcoin ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Crypto confidence ▼ · European energy ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -4.6% hist -4.1–-0.7% · other way -0.77% (n=12) |
| 2 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -3.4% hist -13.35–+3.97% · other way +0.51% (n=10) |
| 3 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -2.6% hist -15.67–+1.22% · other way +3.82% (n=10) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -2.3% hist -14.98–+4.44% · other way -7.69% (n=10) |
| 5 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -3.48–+2.0% · other way +11.68% (n=9) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.72–+0.07% · other way +1.77% (n=12) |
| 8 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.84–+0.19% · other way -1.32% (n=12) |
| 9 | JPMorgan JPM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.31–+0.2% · other way -2.68% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -11.9% · 5d -9.5% | 82% | 17 | 0.61 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -12.9% · 5d -18.1% | 77% | 13 | 0.46 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -1.6% | 70% | 40 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -11.0% · 5d -12.5% | 67% | 15 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d +-0.0% | 66% | 32 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -4.5% | 64% | 35 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.2% | 61% | 40 | 0.19 | · |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -1.0% | 60% | 35 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -16bp · 5d -6bp | 60% | 40 | 0.17 | · |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +3.3% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 54% | 13 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.7% | 52% | 35 | 0.04 | · |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +1.6% · 5d +0.9% | 52% | 36 | 0.04 | · |