What if a heatwave forces bitcoin miners offline as power prices spike?
A heatwave forces miners offline under demand-response contracts while a power-price spike strains margins, exposing the grid-linkage risk regulators flag for large mining loads.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A heatwave forces miners offline under demand-response contracts while a power-price spike strains margins, exposing the grid-linkage risk regulators flag for large mining loads. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Bitcoin ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Crypto confidence ▼ · European energy ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.