What if Mt. Gox-style distribution overhang weighs on spot BTC?
Long-delayed creditor repayments release a large tranche of dormant coins to recipients, adding a known supply overhang that caps near-term BTC upside.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Long-delayed creditor repayments release a large tranche of dormant coins to recipients, adding a known supply overhang that caps near-term BTC upside. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Bitcoin ▼ · Crypto confidence ▼ · Crypto liquidity ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.4% hist -2.48–-0.38% · other way -5.96% (n=12) |
| 2 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -2.5% hist -13.57–+1.82% · other way -3.85% (n=12) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.9% hist -10.67–+0.7% · other way -15.5% (n=12) |
| 4 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.9% hist -8.99–+1.63% · other way -3.27% (n=12) |
| 5 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.18–+0.77% · other way +6.46% (n=12) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.63–+0.15% · other way -0.02% (n=12) |
| 8 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.26–+0.32% · other way +0.57% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -8.1% · 5d -9.9% | 77% | 34 | 0.43 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -10.7% · 5d -8.7% | 71% | 35 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -7.2% · 5d -5.8% | 66% | 35 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.1% | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -10bp · 5d -6bp | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | · |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +1.5% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 55% | 39 | 0.08 | · |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 54% | 34 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -1.6% | 53% | 40 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 51% | 39 | 0.02 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.2% | 51% | 39 | 0.02 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -4.2% ↺ fades | 45% | 39 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.5% | 49% | 39 | 0.00 | · |