What if Mt. Gox-style distribution overhang weighs on spot BTC?
Long-delayed creditor repayments release a large tranche of dormant coins to recipients, adding a known supply overhang that caps near-term BTC upside.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Long-delayed creditor repayments release a large tranche of dormant coins to recipients, adding a known supply overhang that caps near-term BTC upside. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Bitcoin ▼ · Crypto confidence ▼ · Crypto liquidity ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.