What if Korean property project-financing loans default en masse?
Korean real-estate PF defaults hit the brokers and savings banks that warehoused the loans — short Korean financials/securities names and KRW, widen Korean credit — a near-replay of the Oct-2022 Legoland default that froze the won bond market until authorities deployed a 50tn-won backstop. Transmission runs through construction guarantees onto securities-firm balance sheets. Forward angle: this is the realized version of that 2022 near-miss, so the policy reaction function (bond stabilization fund) is known and fast, capping global spillover that the cascade implies.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Korean project-financing real-estate loans default en masse, threatening securities firms and savings banks. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Financial conditions ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.