What if PYUSD's supply doubles past $8 billion?
PYUSD supply doubling past $8bn on merchant adoption is a constructive settlement-share story that re-rates the Ethereum/Solana payment-rail thesis, lifting ETH and SOL modestly. Rhymes with the 2021-23 USDC adoption ramp that lifted ETH gas/settlement value. Forward angle: this is incumbent share-shift (PayPal vs USDT/USDC), not net new crypto demand, so the majors' upside is second-order and easily overstated.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. PYUSD circulating supply doubles past $8 billion as merchant adoption accelerates, pressuring incumbent stablecoin issuers and reshaping settlement flows. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Crypto confidence ▲ · Crypto liquidity ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.