What if a mass node exit depegs Rocket Pool's rETH?
Mass Rocket Pool node exits depeg rETH and clog the validator exit queue, so the LST trades at a discount to NAV and forced unwinds of leveraged rETH/ETH loops pressure spot ETH. Rhymes with stETH's ~7% depeg during the Jun-2022 3AC/Celsius unwind, which stabilized once the exit queue cleared. Channel is liquidity, not a price oracle: the contagion is the redemption discount feeding margin calls in money markets, so size the move off LST TVL and loop leverage, not headline hashpower.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A reward-cut and bug spark mass Rocket Pool node exits, depegging rETH and clogging the validator exit queue. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Crypto confidence ▼ · Crypto liquidity ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.