What if Stablecoin-driven T-bill demand quietly eases dollar funding?
Reserve-backed stablecoins become a large, growing buyer of short-dated Treasuries, adding a structural bid at the front end of the curve.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Reserve-backed stablecoins become a large, growing buyer of short-dated Treasuries, adding a structural bid at the front end of the curve. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Crypto confidence ▲ · Crypto liquidity ▲ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▲ · Financial conditions ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +2.7% hist +0.26–+1.83% · other way -16.86% (n=6) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.6% hist -1.03–+4.15% · other way -3.99% (n=5) |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.7% hist -2.29–+6.79% · other way +4.57% (n=10) |
| 4 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.0–-0.27% · other way -1.12% (n=10) |
| 5 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.9% hist -0.65–+0.73% · other way -15.85% (n=7) |
| 6 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.6% hist +0.16–+0.5% · other way -0.03% (n=12) |
| 7 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -3.74–+8.2% · other way +2.15% (n=5) |
| 8 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.29–-0.05% · other way +0.01% (n=10) |
| 9 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -4bp hist -3.99–+3.95% · other way -9.8% (n=12) |
| 10 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 11 | GBP/USD GBPUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.29–-0.1% · other way -0.12% (n=10) |
| 12 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -4bp hist -3.98–+6.75% · other way -11.5% (n=12) |
| 13 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.71–+0.51% · other way +0.07% (n=10) |
| 14 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.22–-0.1% · other way +0.29% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.1% | 66% | 40 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.1% | 63% | 40 | 0.20 | · |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.3% | 61% | 40 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 61% | 40 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +8bp · 5d +1bp | 61% | 40 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.1% | 61% | 40 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.9% | 61% | 40 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -2.8% | 59% | 40 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 59% | 40 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +6bp · 5d +1bp | 56% | 40 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| AUD AUD | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 56% | 40 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.1% | 54% | 40 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -3.3% | 54% | 40 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d +1.1% ↺ fades | 54% | 40 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |