What if opaque Tether credit exposure triggers a 2022-style redemption wave?
Concern that Tether's reserves still hold opaque credit exposure triggers a 2022-style discount and redemption wave, the reserve-opacity risk the FSB and BIS repeatedly flag for global stablecoins.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Concern that Tether's reserves still hold opaque credit exposure triggers a 2022-style discount and redemption wave, the reserve-opacity risk the FSB and BIS repeatedly flag for global stablecoins. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Bitcoin ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Crypto confidence ▼ · Crypto liquidity ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.