What if a top-three exchange halts withdrawals?
A top-three exchange halting withdrawals on 'technical issues' is read instantly as insolvency, sparking a cross-venue bank-run; BTC/ETH gap down and CEX-proxy equities (Coinbase -3.3%) and MSTR lead. Rhymes directly with the Nov-2022 FTX withdrawal halt and contagion. Forward angle: post-FTX proof-of-reserves and self-custody reflexes mean the run is faster but the flight-to-self-custody bid partially offsets — watch on-chain outflows for the bottom signal.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A top-three global exchange halts withdrawals citing 'technical issues,' sparking a contagion bank-run across centralized venues. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Crypto confidence ▼ · Crypto liquidity ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.