What if the US establishes a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve?
A US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is a sovereign demand/legitimacy shock: BTC rallies with ETH/SOL beta amplifying and MSTR/COIN as the levered equity plays. The nearest rhyme is the Mar-2025 executive-order SBR (funded from seized coins) and El Salvador's adoption — both more symbolic than flow-positive. Forward angle: the trade hinges on whether Treasury is a net new buyer or merely ring-fences existing holdings; a budget-neutral reserve is far less bullish than headlines imply — read the funding mechanism.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. The US government establishes a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Crypto confidence ▲ · Crypto liquidity ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.