What if a yield-bearing stablecoin suffers a confidence run?
A yield stablecoin run on a surfaced duration mismatch forces fire-sale of underlying bills, the classic NAV-break dynamic; spillover hits ETH/BTC via DeFi collateral unwind. Rhymes with the 2008 Reserve Primary buck-break and the Mar-2023 deposit-flight dynamics. Forward angle: tokenized-treasury wrappers add a redemption-gate layer absent in money funds, so the run can freeze faster but the bill fire-sale is the contagion vector to watch.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A treasury-backed yield stablecoin suffers a confidence run after a duration mismatch surfaces, forcing fire-sale of underlying bills. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Crypto confidence ▼ · Crypto liquidity ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.