Instrument
This Week
Each week, a tight book of dated 7-day calls: resolution rules fixed at publish, our number set against the live market’s, frozen to the public chain, graded when it lands. The disagreements are the point — and only the resolved record settles them.
Archived call · frozen receipt 5eb0e03c · +7d
Frozen before the fact
US CPI m/m ≥ 0.3% this Thursday
window · Jul 6–13 · venue · BLS 08:30 ET
“Settles YES on the BLS CPI print; ≥ 0.30 rounds the call YES. No revisions honored.”
Ours vs the market
Us41%
Market · Polymarket34%
+7 pts · a disagreement, not a proven edge
frozen 2026-07-05 14:00 UTC · sha 5eb0e03c · 2 prediction markets benchmarked
The rule is written first.
Each call ships with its grading rule — the level, the print, the event — decided at publish. Nothing to argue later, including with us.
The gap, not the victory lap.
Where our number breaks from the market’s, we show it as a disagreement, not a boast. The resolved record decides who was right.
The same loop, every week.
Resolve, grade, append, publish. Receipts compound; opinions don’t.
This runs live on the desk. The receipts are public — read the record before you take a seat. A seat runs this instrument on your own book, with alerts the moment the gap opens.