What if dockworkers strike over fully automated ports in 2030?
An ILA East/Gulf strike threat over fully automated terminals is a supply-chain/wage-pressure event: it lifts inflation expectations and real yields more than it moves equities. Rhymes directly with the Oct-2024 and Jan-2025 ILA port actions that won automation limits and stoked freight-cost fears. Forward angle: the clean read is breakevens/curve and freight-rate proxies; the crypto risk-on legs are spurious on a dockworker dispute.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. ILA threatens an East/Gulf Coast strike as the 2030 master-contract talks confront employers' push for fully automated terminals. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Job displacement ▼ · Labor shortage ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.