What if dockworkers strike over fully automated ports in 2030?
An ILA East/Gulf strike threat over fully automated terminals is a supply-chain/wage-pressure event: it lifts inflation expectations and real yields more than it moves equities. Rhymes directly with the Oct-2024 and Jan-2025 ILA port actions that won automation limits and stoked freight-cost fears. Forward angle: the clean read is breakevens/curve and freight-rate proxies; the crypto risk-on legs are spurious on a dockworker dispute.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. ILA threatens an East/Gulf Coast strike as the 2030 master-contract talks confront employers' push for fully automated terminals. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Job displacement ▼ · Labor shortage ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.59–+0.36% · other way -0.98% (n=12) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -6.31–+15.93% · other way +9.99% (n=12) |
| 3 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.53–+1.38% · other way -0.24% (n=12) |
| 4 | Homebuilders XHB 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.45–+1.12% · other way +1.15% (n=12) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -7.97–+2.27% · other way +5.11% (n=12) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.45–+0.65% · other way -0.46% (n=12) |
| 8 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.03–+0.14% · other way +0.13% (n=12) |
| 9 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -1.41–+5.18% · other way +4.9% (n=12) |
| 10 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +1bp hist -2.27–+8.68% · other way +2.3% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade's long on SOL/ETH: realized losses cluster entirely in AI-capex-doubt and Sahm-rule growth scares where crypto traded as macro-risk beta — regime-contaminated, unrelated to a 2030 port-automation fight.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -7.2% · 5d -7.1% | 66% | 40 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| XHB XHB | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -1.3% ↺ fades | 61% | 40 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +7bp · 5d +2bp | 61% | 40 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 59% | 40 | 0.14 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +14.9% · 5d +1.2% | 56% | 40 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.9% | 56% | 40 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +-0.0% | 54% | 40 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +4bp · 5d +1bp | 54% | 40 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -2.3% ↺ fades | 51% | 40 | 0.02 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 49% | 40 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 44% | 40 | 0.00 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +1.3% · 5d -2.5% ↺ fades | 49% | 40 | 0.00 | · |
Why this probability
ILA already fought automation in 2024-25; 2030 talks confronting full automation is near-baseline. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.