What if Congress enacts a federal tax on robots?
A federal per-machine automation levy directly dents capex plans and de-rates the AI-silicon complex (Nvidia, Broadcom, Micron) while marginally cushioning labor. Rhymes with the Jan-2025 DeepSeek capex-doubt selloff that hit GPU names on a demand-question alone. Skeptic's note: a robot tax is legislatively remote in the US; treat this as a tail-hedge structure (short semis/long consumer) rather than a base case.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Congress passes a per-machine automation levy to fund displaced workers, denting capex plans and industrial-automation stocks. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▼ · Job displacement ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.57–+0.64% · other way +1.42% (n=12) |
| 2 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.62–-0.19% · other way +1.03% (n=12) |
| 3 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.81–+0.72% · other way +2.5% (n=12) |
| 4 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.23–-0.13% · other way +1.09% (n=12) |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.49–+0.46% · other way -0.43% (n=12) |
| 6 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.65–+1.56% · other way +0.67% (n=12) |
| 7 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.88–+0.97% · other way -2.91% (n=12) |
| 8 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.78–+1.04% · other way +1.72% (n=12) |
| 9 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.31–-0.04% · other way +0.2% (n=12) |
| 10 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -15.88–+5.24% · other way -6.28% (n=12) |
| 11 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -3.21–+1.82% · other way -2.38% (n=12) |
| 12 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -6.62–+8.25% · other way +18.8% (n=12) |
| 13 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.74–+2.06% · other way -1.26% (n=12) |
| 14 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.32–+0.73% · other way -0.33% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade on SOL: the -15% history is BTC-beta swamped — those drops are crypto risk-off during 2023-24 AI-capex scares, not a robot-tax shock that barely touches Solana's channel.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 11 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -14.5% · 5d -5.2% | 91% | 10 | 0.57 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -5.3% · 5d -2.0% | 75% | 11 | 0.39 | · |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -1.4% | 75% | 11 | 0.32 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 67% | 11 | 0.26 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -14bp · 5d -1bp | 67% | 11 | 0.26 | · |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -4.8% | 67% | 11 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.3% | 67% | 11 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 67% | 11 | 0.25 | · |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -3.6% | 67% | 11 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.9% | 67% | 11 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -4.1% | 62% | 11 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -1.7% | 58% | 11 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -1.1% | 54% | 11 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| NVDA NVDA | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -1.5% ↺ fades | 33% | 11 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
Why this probability
Federal robot tax has near-zero US legislative traction; pro-capex deregulatory Congress. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.