What if $300B loss-of-exclusivity wave hits big pharma through 2030?
A stacked 2025-30 patent cliff (~$300B of branded sales) across Merck, BMS, J&J and others compresses pharma earnings growth to near zero and de-rates the sector vs the S&P.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A stacked 2025-30 patent cliff (~$300B of branded sales) across Merck, BMS, J&J and others compresses pharma earnings growth to near zero and de-rates the sector vs the S&P. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Biotech breakthrough ▼ · Consumer spending ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -9.24–+3.77% |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -6.84–+10.95% |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.43–+0.22% |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -3.11–+1.98% |
| 6 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -3.53–+5.53% |
| 7 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.27–-0.02% |
| 8 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.27–+2.3% |
| 9 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.57–+0.67% |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 18 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -8.6% · 5d -8.9% | 80% | 11 | 0.44 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.5% | 70% | 17 | 0.32 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +5.8% · 5d -5.1% ↺ fades | 59% | 14 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 60% | 16 | 0.16 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +11.4% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 55% | 16 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.8% · 5d +0.0% | 55% | 16 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -7.7% | 55% | 12 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 55% | 17 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +2bp · 5d +1bp | 52% | 17 | 0.03 | · |
| SPX SPX | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +1.4% ↺ fades | 39% | 17 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.2% · 5d -5.2% ↺ fades | 50% | 17 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 44% | 15 | 0.00 | · |