What if Mexico's second judicial election seats more inexperienced judges?
Mexico's second elected-judge wave is a peso/Mbono trade: deeper judicial-independence erosion lifts the country-risk premium, steepens the Mbono curve and pressures MXN as foreign holders trim. Direct analogue is the June-2024 Morena-supermajority/judicial-reform shock (peso -8% in days, Mbono yields jumped). Mexico is now the top US goods-trade partner via nearshoring; the forward twist is USMCA-review risk compounding the rule-of-law discount foreign FDI is pricing.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Mexico's 2027 vote seats a second wave of elected judges, deepening bench inexperience; foreign investors balk, peso and Mbono yields rise. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · EM currencies ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.