What if A Truss-style bond-vigilante moment forces a fiscal U-turn?
An unfunded fiscal package in a major economy triggers a disorderly gilt-style selloff and a pension-LDI scramble; spreads and volatility spike, the currency drops, and authorities reverse course under market pressure.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. An unfunded fiscal package in a major economy triggers a disorderly gilt-style selloff and a pension-LDI scramble; spreads and volatility spike, the currency drops, and authorities reverse course under market pressure. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Volatility (VIX) ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Risk-parity deleveraging ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.